Warming Trend in U.S.-Russia Relations Leaves Ukraine in a Tough Spot

Trump Administration

Trump’s recent moves, including a conversation with Putin and a demand for Ukrainian mineral rights, are worrisome signs for Zelensky.

Reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine was already facing a daunting week as foreign officials gathered in Europe for talks about his country’s future.

The Trump administration was demanding $500 billion in Ukrainian mineral rights, it canceled Ukraine’s exemption from U.S. tariffs on steel and a leading American skeptic of military assistance for Kyiv, Vice President JD Vance, was on his way to Europe for a meeting with the Ukrainian leader.

But on Wednesday, things went from bad to worse. President Trump’s defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, delivered a harsh assessment of Ukraine’s prospects in its war with Russia. Then Mr. Trump announced that he had spoken with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, a call Mr. Trump characterized as the opening of talks to end the war — with no clear role for Mr. Zelensky.

The phone call also spelled the end of American efforts to isolate Russia diplomatically after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago.

“He’s on his heels geopolitically,” Cliff Kupchan, chairman of Eurasia Group, a risk analysis firm based in Washington, said of Mr. Zelensky.

Mr. Trump’s actions in the last two days — which also included a prisoner swap with the Kremlin that freed an American teacher — signaled a thawing relationship between the United States and Russia that could favor Mr. Putin in a peace deal while leaving Ukraine on the sidelines.

Territorial control in Ukraine

Before 2014 invasion

BELARUS

RUSSIA

UKRAINE

ROMANIA

Before 2022 invasion

BELARUS

RUSSIA

UKRAINE

Russian-backed

separatist

control

ROMANIA

Russia seized

Crimea in 2014.

As of Feb. 12, 2025

BELARUS

RUSSIA

UKRAINE

Controlled

by Russia

ROMANIA

Territorial control in Ukraine

Before 2014 invasion

Before 2022 invasion

As of Feb. 12, 2025

BELARUS

BELARUS

BELARUS

RUSSIA

RUSSIA

RUSSIA

UKRAINE

UKRAINE

UKRAINE

ROMANIA

ROMANIA

ROMANIA

Russia seized Crimea

in 2014.

Russian-backed

separatist control

Controlled

by Russia

Source: Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project

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